PL Predictions: ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ – Gunners to end winless run

Arsenal can leap back top of the Premier League by beating Aston Villa whilst Newcastle’s 17-game unbeaten run will end vs Liverpool, writes tipster Jones Knows.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30pm

Arsenal managed to grind out a 1-0 win at Villa Park last season in the early Saturday kick-off slot after being beaten by Liverpool on that previous Wednesday night. History can repeat itself. Yes, the stakes and pressures are higher this season with them going for the title rather than just top four, but Mikel Arteta’s team are capable of being robust on the road, keeping seven clean sheets away from home this season in 11 fixtures.

With confidence lacking in their attacking process, this game screams low scoring so it’s time to back the under goals line again in the 12.30pm game.

Since the start of last season, that Saturday timeslot has produced an average of just 2.2 goals per game with 37 of those 46 fixtures seeing three or fewer total goals scored. West Ham vs Chelsea went that way last weekend.

I’d be confident of the 4/5 with Sky Bet on the under 2.5 goals line landing but those looking for a little bit more bulk should consider the 3/1 on Arsenal winning and under 2.5 goals – in other words backing a 1-0 or 2-0 Arsenal victory.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Brentford vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm

When and how did Crystal Palace manage to post 25 points this season? Has someone done the maths?

It’s a return that becomes even more baffling when they haven’t won any of their 13 Premier League games against top-half teams this season, drawing six and losing seven.

No win in their last six Premier League games is a big worry and their performance metrics since the restart have them defined as serious relegation material – maybe it’s time to start eyeing up the 10/1 with Sky Bet available on Palace going down?

In their last eight games their expected goals for and against data reads: 6.77 vs 13.99, losing seven of those matches on the expected goals battle including last weekend’s 1-1 with Brighton. In that period they’ve only managed 5.8 shots per game from open play – only Everton have posted a lower figure. That suggests this Palace team are becoming rather toothless when being asked to open up an opposition.

Although all three of these Premier League meetings since Brentford were promoted have ended in draws, it really is hard to be prised away from the 4/5 on offer for the Bees to take three points. They can make it four home wins on the spin.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Brighton vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm

I have watched enough of Brighton at the Amex to know that 8/13 with Sky Bet for them to beat a team that are seventh in the Premier League is a price to stay clear of.

Something special is going on under Roberto De Zerbi but the markets have got a little carried away. Brighton have only won 10 of their last 28 Premier League matches at home since the start of last season – that includes losing to Aston Villa, drawing with Nottingham Forest and only scraping past Bournemouth with a late goal. All those matches were on De Zerbi’s watch, too.

Fulham deserve more respect than the 4/1 on offer with Sky Bet for the away win. Last weekend’s comfortable 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest only further strengthened their record against teams outside the top five this season. It’s now just one loss in those 16 matches, including beating Brighton when managed by Graham Potter at Craven Cottage earlier this campaign. I’m happy to row in with an away win at those odds and want to add Willian to score to boost the price to 14/1 with Sky Bet.

The Brazilian – at 34 – looks as fit and aggressive as he was during his glory years at Chelsea. Marco Silva has done a remarkable job to get him back to those levels. His explosive counter-attacking should take him into some promising positions in this match and he possesses the quality to hurt Brighton – like he did when scoring the opening goal last weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Fulham to win & Willian to score (14/1 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

It doesn’t matter if Graham Potter has Danny Welbeck, Neal Maupay or Joao Felix playing in attack, he remains the king of underperforming expected goals. It’s now just three goals scored in Potter’s last six games in charge of Chelsea to a backdrop of 9.82 worth of expected goals. His players need to change that wastefulness – and fast – otherwise the heat on him may start to turn up at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Potter has some serious tools to work with though. There is a high level of football intelligence in the Chelsea forward line and the signs are very positive for a fruitful partnership between Kai Havertz and Felix, who are playing close to one another when assessing the average positions data. Havertz has provided five chances for Felix in the three matches they’ve played together, including Felix wasting a glorious opening in Dortmund via a Havertz assist on Wednesday.

Against, arguably, the worst defensive team in the Premier League – and one making a mess of their search for a manager – these two should be able to cause havoc, so the 12/1 with Sky Bet on Felix to score from a Havertz assist looks a fantastic bet to follow over the next few weeks if the price remains on that track.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Joao Felix to score from a Kai Havertz assist (12/1 with Sky Bet)

Everton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Jamie Carragher made a great point about Everton: when games become stretched their defenders simply don’t possess the mobility or confidence in their passing to hurt teams. Leeds only know one way of playing, with or without Jesse Marsch, and are going to take this game down the chaos avenue. And if Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains sidelined, it’s hard to make a case for Everton as their attacks just won’t stick without him.

After a fantastic career at Everton, Seamus Coleman looks his age at 34 – at least, based on the evidence of Liverpool’s counter-attacks charging past him on Monday night – and Wilfried Gnonto will be encouraged to get Coleman one-on-one at every opportunity. The exciting Gnonto has fired 10 shots on target in his last eight fixtures, scoring with four of those efforts. The 9/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring first underestimates his probability in that particular market and those that like taking short prices should certainly consider the 5/6 on him to have another shot on target.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Pep Guardiola had decided to turn Manchester City into a heavyweight championship boxer fighting with one hand tied behind their back this season.

Dropping Kevin de Bruyne in the 1-0 defeat to Tottenham, selling Joao Cancelo – the league’s most outstanding full-back of the past two seasons, signing the deadliest young striker in world football and then deciding not to play to his strengths and somehow fathoming that Bernardo Silva is the answer to their problems down the left side of their defence.

Perhaps it was all getting too easy? Perhaps he’s just trolling all of us? Either way, the legitimate prospect of Arsenal going nine points clear in the title race has triggered a change in approach. In the second half at the Emirates, Guardiola played his best players in the best formation and got Erling Haaland creating havoc with the ball played directly to him. It worked. And the title race is now probably over.

Guardiola has spoken about how his team need to play quicker into Haaland and there certainly has been a spike of him using his pace and power to get in behind in the last two games. This willingness to play more direct may just see Haaland’s offside numbers increase in the next few weeks. The 11/8 with Sky Bet for him to be caught offside at least once does look very appealing.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Wolves vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm

I’ve been banging the drum of Bournemouth being the worst team in this Premier League for much of the season, even when they were flying under Gary O’Neil. Oddly, however, now that Bournemouth find themselves in the relegation zone my view on them is changing slightly following some shrewd January acquisitions and two very encouraging attacking performances against Brighton and Newcastle. There is hope for a survival push.

Despite those two tricky fixtures, the Cherries created a total 2.72 of expected goals output with the 1.56 created against Newcastle the most the Toon had conceded in their last eight Premier League games – and that included playing the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester.

The speed and power of Dango Ouattara added to the quality of Dominic Solanke through the middle does make Bournemouth a dangerous attacking outfit now. Wolves absolutely trounce Bournemouth in the dugout, though, with Julen Lopetegui showcasing already what a shrewd operator he is by overseeing three wins in their last four Premier League games. It’s hard to fancy Bournemouth in the outright prices but with their increased attacking threat, goals look overpriced at Evens with Sky Bet for over 2.5.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Newcastle vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 17 Premier League games – it takes a special group to put a run like that together.

But despite that outrageous set of results, my eyes are telling me that Eddie Howe’s men have gone a bit stale since the World Cup restart and the numbers back that up, especially in forward areas. The 1-1 draw at Bournemouth means they’ve scored just three goals in their last six Premier League games now. In games against the Cherries, West Ham and Crystal Palace, the Toon have created a per 90 average of just 1.19 worth of expected goals. A team harbouring hopes of finishing in the top four should be aiming for an average north of 2.00 when playing teams of that ranking level.

Saturday 18th February 5:00pm


Kick off 5:30pm

Bruno Guimaraes remains missing, too – serving the third match of his suspension – and Newcastle are winless in the five Premier League games without him this season.

I’m not truly convinced Liverpool are “back” after beating the most toothless of Toffees on Monday night but their attack is always worth respecting.

Despite their wobbles, Liverpool have averaged 17 shots per game and 1.8 worth of expected goals per game in the Premier League this season – almost exactly the same as their average across the previous seven Premier League seasons under Jurgen Klopp. And with Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino back from injury, there is a refreshed snarl about the Liverpool front line now. At 17/10 with Sky Bet an away win is hard to turn down.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Manchester United vs Leicester, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Sunday 19th February 1:00pm


Kick off 2:00pm

Brendan Rodgers has conjured up a fluid and dangerous attacking unit, led by James Maddison, that is completely capable of creating big moments at Old Trafford, especially with United likely to make changes to an already weakened midfield. That could make the hosts vulnerable here to the Foxes, who have won four of their last six Premier League away games.

Harvey Barnes remains a player completely overlooked on a weekly basis by the markets. Barnes has scored eight times this season to a backdrop of 2.35 shots per 90 and 1.15 shots on target per 90. He is priced up very healthily at 12/1 to score first and 4/1 anytime despite being Leicester’s most potent attacking weapon along with Maddison. Barnes continues to play as an out and out left-wing forward with not many defensive responsibilities and is so dangerous when cutting in onto his right foot. He can feature prominently in a goal-heavy game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Tottenham vs West Ham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Stylistically, West Ham aren’t doing much differently to last season but their serious threat from set-pieces and crosses – a key area of strength for all David Moyes’ teams – has completely gone astray.

The Hammers are the only Premier League team yet to score from a cross this season – this is after scoring 30 Premier League goals from crosses in the previous two seasons. And, they have scored only one headed goal this season from 53 shots, compared to eight headed goals from 67 shots last season. Perhaps teams have worked out a methodology to stop them.

Since leaving Everton, Moyes has managed 37 times away at either Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool and has yet to register a victory with just six of those ending in draws.

That’s 31 defeats, yet, 17 of those came by just a one-goal margin. This means when Moyes takes a team to a ‘big six’ rival there is a 46 per cent chance that team will lose by one goal from quite a hefty sample size of games. It makes sense as his style does lead to no-thrills match-ups where it can be a slog for the opposition to find a way through.

Odds of 5/2 with Sky Bet for Tottenham to win by one goal imply a 28 per cent chance of probability so we’re getting a fair chunk of value on our side with this one.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0