PL Predictions: West Ham to poop Luton’s FNF party

Fresh from a frenzy of winners, our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League card and makes a case to back West Ham fouls vs Luton.

Luton vs West Ham, Friday Night Football 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Luton Town vs West Ham United
Luton Town vs West Ham United, live on Sky

Kenilworth Road will take centre stage as ‘the old girl’ hosts Premier League football for the first time after her £10m makeover. There’s a lazy assumption that Luton’s home form at the throwback of a stadium will make or break their season – I’m not sure. Luton only had the sixth-best home record in the Championship last season, winning just 10 of their 23 matches. Even though they have the defensive capacity and ethos to frustrate teams home and away this season, this looks the wrong time to play a bouncing West Ham, who attacked with such quality, confidence and gusto at Brighton.

A low-scoring away win looks the route to go down in the outright with 100/30 on offer for a West Ham win and under 3.5 goals.

My punting instincts have drawn me to the West Ham player fouls market though where numbers may spike up against foul-drawing Luton duo Tahith Chong and Ross Barkley in the engine room. Barkley was his slippery self at Chelsea last Friday, winning three fouls while the even slipperier Chong won four – in total Luton drew 14 fouls in the match and I’d be expecting similar lines to be hit here. Therefore, the 10/11 with Sky Bet for West Ham to make 10 or more fouls should land in what should be a hostile and raucous atmosphere under the lights.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: West Ham to make 10 or more fouls (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Any winners last week for Jones Knows?

  • Jarrod Bowen to score (9/2) & SOT (10/11)
  • Erling Haaland to score a header (6/1)
  • Over 10.5 SOT’s in Newcastle vs Liverpool (5/4)
  • Over 3.5 Burnley offsides (5/4)
  • Wolves DNB vs Everton (11/10)
  • Wins for Villa, Man City, Wolves, Spurs & draw in Brentford vs Palace

Sheffield United vs Everton, Saturday 12.30pm

Things are only going to get Beto for Everton.

In fairness, they can’t get much worse. No goals, no points, a lucky escape in midweek against Doncaster which means the noise levels around the club are already giving Sean Dyche headaches. There is hope though.

Firstly, their new centre-forward looked tailor-made for a Dyche team during his cameo on Wednesday and their performance data in attack has them underperforming hugely (4.69 worth of non-penalty expected goals), suggesting their process in terms of chance creation is healthy and goals will flow soon enough – starting here, where they look good things at 6/4 with Sky Bet for the away win.

Sheffield United remain firm favourites to finish bottom of the pile to my eye.

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Highlights of the Carabao Cup second round clash between Doncaster Rovers and Everton

They were pathetic in midweek, creating just 0.42 worth of expected goals in another timid attacking showing in their 0-0 home draw with League One Lincoln that they lost on penalties. Bramall Lane has the ability to gobble up opposition teams such is the vociferous nature of the ground but it can also work the other way – and this might be the game where the home fans turn considering this will be deemed a winnable fixture.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Everton to win (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Correctly predict six scorelines to win £250,000 for free with Super 6. Entries by 3pm Saturday.
Correctly predict six scorelines to win £250,000 for free with Super 6. Entries by 3pm Saturday

Brentford vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm

The swift implementation of playing style by Ange Postecoglou and Mauricio Pochettino isn’t helpful for Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola, whose side don’t look entirely comfortable yet under his watch. They were swatted aside by free-flowing Tottenham last weekend with a failure to expose a somewhat shaky Spurs backline a bit of a warning alarm. They looked a timid outfit. It’s far too early to be rushing to any sweeping conclusions or statements about the manager though – but I’ll be watching them closely for improvement over the next month.

Brentford, so strong at home, losing just one of last 17 matches, will be tactically astute and well-drilled as always, so Bournemouth will need to match them for physicality and defend their box properly, something the Cherries haven’t done well since promotion. Home win.


Burnley vs Tottenham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Vincent Kompany is an intelligent man and when he speaks, it’s wise to listen. He warned the world that we wouldn’t see the best of Burnley until his players form the chemistry required in the Premier League to pick up results. Despite racking up 101 points when romping to the Championship title, Kompany’s side showed a similar pattern last season when winning just one of their first five league matches. They remain a watching brief for me before I form too much of a conclusive opinion regarding where in the table they’ll be challenging this season.

Spurs have been well fancied in the market at 17/20 with Sky Bet for maximum points and although their axis of Yves Bissouma and James Maddison have looked frighteningly devastating at times, there remains doubts about their consistency to sustain high levels over the course of a season. It’s hard to make a case for either team at their win prices, so a draw it is.


Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Enzo Fernandez is a player to follow across various markets over the next few months.

The Argentine is becoming the driving force, taking free-kicks, corners, penalties and is playing much further up the field under the new manager in a position he feels best suited to. When Mauricio Pochettino needed some oomph from the bench against AFC Wimbledon in midweek, Fernandez was called upon and he grabbed his first Chelsea goal.

Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez, left, celebrates with Marc Cucurella after scoring his side's second goal vs AFC Wimbledon
Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez celebrates his first goal for the club – he is 11/1 to score first

Since making the £107m move from Benfica in January, no player has had more touches and successful passes in the Premier League. What he’s added this season under Pochettino is more dynamism in the attacking third as he’s been given licence to roam further forward. That can be seen by the number of passes he’s made in the final third – again, no player has made more this season.

He’ll be disappointed his goal or assists output stands at zero in the Premier League so far – but as showed by his cool and calm finish in midweek, the goals will come. In his three games, he’s posted seven shots to an expected goals tally of 1.25. Granted, almost half of that xG came from his missed penalty at West Ham but a player with such all-action tendencies, strong attacking data and takes free-kicks and penalties, shouldn’t be as big as 11/1 with Sky Bet to score first at home to Nottingham Forest.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Enzo Fernandez to score first (11/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Manchester City vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Well, the title race was good while it lasted. For about 270 seconds after Jayden Bogle’s equaliser for Sheffield United against Manchester City, there was hope for the chasing pack.

But this City side are a force of nature. They play with such brute force and directness yet all the style and subtlety remain when in possession. It’s a potent mix. If anything, this might be the best Pep Guardiola side we’ve ever seen.

There doesn’t seem to be an obvious pecking order in behind them with Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle, Tottenham, Chelsea, Brighton and Aston Villa all set to make the race between second and ninth very exciting this season. They’ll beat one another week-by-week, meaning City could stride clear earlier than expected this time around.

Those already thinking about getting involved at 4/9 with Sky Bet for City to win another title should probably get involved now. In two months it could be closer to 1/6. There should be no problems for them in this one.


Brighton vs Newcastle, Saturday Night Football 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Brighton vs Newcastle
Brighton vs Newcastle, live on Sky

Raising expectation levels is the unfortunate cost that comes with unexpected success. Eddie Howe is feeling that right now as he enters a potentially challenging period of his management.

He was schooled by Jurgen Klopp in Newcastle’s remarkable defeat to Liverpool, where his one-dimensional management was exposed. It was a nervous performance overall from the Toon, who need to learn how to play with expectation on their shoulders now they are seen as genuine top-four competitors.

It’s not often Brighton trade at a backable price for a home win – but I like the 8/5 with Sky Bet here.

Brighton’s recent record against Arsenal, Man City, Tottenham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool is pretty outrageous. In their last 20 matches across all competitions against the aforementioned opponents, Brighton have won 11 of those fixtures, winning the aggregate score 35-26.

They possess the relentless attacking style to wobble a Newcastle defence that isn’t as formidable as you might think. It’s a defence that have kept just two clean sheets in their last 21 Premier League games while Nick Pope, who has lost his England place, has seen a dramatic decline in his save ratio which has fallen from 83 per cent to 68 per cent in the last 21 matches. Three defeats on the spin look on the horizon for Howe.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Brighton to win (8/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Liverpool vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

This is a second chance for Aston Villa to deliver on some bulky pre-season expectations that went up in smoke in their 5-1 opening day defeat to Newcastle. That result may prove to be a huge outlier though on what is shaping up to be an exciting season for Unai Emery and his boys.

Despite Liverpool’s potentially season-lift-off result at Newcastle, I’m still unsure of their position as a top-four ranked side. It’s a defence that remains unconvincing without the structure of the midfield looking secure. Villa can certainly make some noise at Anfield.

They did tempt me on the double chance at 5/4 with Sky Bet but my eyes were drawn to the total goals market where the goal expectancy looks too high for this clash.

Aston Villa are a cagey team away under Emery on the road, where they sit a little deeper than their fantastically aggressive high line plays at home and soak up a bit more pressure. Eleven of their 13 road matches have fallen under the 3.5 goal line, including this fixture that ended 1-1 towards the end of last season. This makes the 8/11 with Sky Bet for under 3.5 goals look a solid starting point for a wager.


Crystal Palace vs Wolves, Super Sunday, 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Crystal Palace vs Wolves
Crystal Palace vs Wolves, live on Sky

Eberechi Eze buys lots of tickets but hasn’t won a raffle yet this season. His time is coming though, as if he keeps posting the same level of attacking metrics, a goal glut is on the way such is his quality in front of goal. Eze has fired 16 shots this season, the joint-most of any Premier League player with Erling Haaland but, unlike to City striker, Eze has yet to score.

Eze was Palace’s top scorer last season with 10 Premier League goals and his form since Roy Hodgson took charge suggests he’ll surpass those figures this campaign – but he does need to get going. Unfortunately for our bank balances, the markets agree with Eze’s goalscoring potential despite him drawing a blank so far. He is 5/1 with Sky Bet to open the scoring and just 2/1 to score at any time – prices that aren’t exactly soaked with value – but now might be the time to catch him.


Arsenal vs Manchester United, Super Sunday, 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Arsenal vs Manchester United
Arsenal vs Manchester United, live on Sky

The case for goals in what should be a pulsating Super Sunday clash is an easy one to make but sometimes the most profitable and successful angles are the glaringly obvious ones. In their last 21 home matches in the Premier League, the total average goal output in Arsenal matches stood at a whopping 4.11 with 15 of those games seeing both teams score and the over 2.5 goals line surpassed, including both fixtures this season.

We can back that angle of both teams scoring and over 2.5 at 4/5 with Sky Bet here which implies a 55 per cent probability.

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Check out some of the most unforgettable moments from Arsenal and Manchester United’s historic rivalry as they get set to face each other live on Super Sunday

When factoring in the raw numbers but also adding a little ingenuity to the equation in terms of the problems Marcus Rashford is going to cause Arsenal on the counter-attack – he scored or assisted four of United’s five goals vs Arsenal last season – I’d have that percentage closer to 65 per cent, meaning we’ve got a healthy value play there.


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